Tensions in northern Syria are escalating as the Assad regime increases attacks and people fear a potential offensive against the liberated areas, particularly in Idlib, have surfaced. Russian reconnaissance planes have been conducting intensified surveillance over the region, fueling concerns of imminent military action. Meanwhile, pro-Assad media outlets and regime-affiliated social media accounts have been hinting at an upcoming operation aimed at retaking strategic territory in northwestern Syria.
Since early Sunday morning, a Russian AN-30 reconnaissance aircraft has been spotted conducting continuous flights over Idlib and western Aleppo, a move that revolutionary forces see as preparation for future attacks. These areas remain a focal point of Assad’s efforts to regain control of the last major revolutionary stronghold in Syria.
Pro-regime news outlets, including the newspaper Al-Watan, have been amplifying speculation about an impending assault. According to Al-Watan, field data points to the departure of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Turkish oversight regarding military operations, with Ankara allegedly opposing any escalation. The newspaper quoted regime sources claiming that HTS and other factions, operating under the Al-Fath al-Mubeen Operations Room (FOMR), were preparing for a military operation that regime forces are fully equipped to repel.
Sources close to the regime dismissed the possibility of a major offensive by revolutionary factions, citing the strength of regime forces and their Russian backers. These sources argued that the “opposition” remains incapable of making significant advances on the front lines stretching from northern Latakia to the western Aleppo countryside, encompassing areas in Hama and Idlib.
“The initiative was and will remain in the hands of the regime forces,” one field source told Al-Watan. The source further suggested that any attack by HTS or revolutionary factions would provoke a “violent reaction,” not only from Assad’s forces but also from the Russian Air Force, which has been providing crucial air support and reconnaissance.
Regime outlets cite Russia’s “dissatisfaction” with reports of Ukrainian-made drones having made their way into HTS’s hands, as likely to cause a “more aggressive” Russian response. Although HTS has repeatedly denied these accusations, the claims have added another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation in northern Syria.
Despite the Assad regime’s downplaying of revolutionary capabilities, reports from within the liberated areas in northern Syria suggest that factions are indeed preparing for decisive battles. Over recent weeks, there has been a noticeable increase in the movement of revolutionary fighters, with some suggesting that a key battle could occur in or around Aleppo, a city of strategic significance to the regime.
While the focus remains on Idlib, sources within pro-regime circles and some analysts suggest that the regime might be positioning itself to eventually reclaim areas in southern Syria, particularly near the Golan Heights, where tensions with Israel have been simmering. An analyst cited by Syria TV speculated that the regime sees the current instability as an opportunity to consolidate control in the south while also preparing to confront revolutionary forces in the north.
All sides appear to be preparing for the possibility of escalation, leaving civilians in Idlib and western Aleppo vulnerable to another wave of violence. As the situation continues to evolve, the international community watches closely, with fears of renewed displacement and a worsening humanitarian crisis looming over the region.
