As the sun rose over the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, a battered bus pulled to a stop as it passed from Turkey to Syria, among them was Muhammad Mustafa, returning to Damascus with his wife and two children after years of exile in Egypt. Streams of Syrians who had fled their homes nearly a decade ago now began their journey through a landscape both familiar and unrecognizable.
Passing from the developed former revolutionary enclave of Idlib, a juxtapose of displacement camps and newly built infrastructure, schools, shopping centers, and industrial city. The patchwork of state gave way to the dilapidated and gutted shell of a Syria long abused and exploited by a single family for over five decades. “We are trying to adapt to the difficult conditions in Damascus,” Mustafa said but determined that his children would not be deprived of a life in their country.
Like Muhammad, hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees are making the journey back to their homeland following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. After more than a decade of war and displacement, the question remains: Is Syria truly ready for their return?
A Surge in Returns Amid Uncertainty
Since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, Syria has witnessed a sharp increase in the number of returning refugees. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 270,000 Syrian refugees have returned since December 2024, while an additional 825,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) have resettled in their former communities. This is the largest wave of repatriation in years, fueled by hope, necessity, and external pressure.
However, not all returns are voluntary. Many refugees are facing increasing hardship in their host countries, where economic crises, restrictive policies, and even deportations have forced them to reconsider their futures. In Lebanon, where more than 1.5 million Syrians sought refuge, a wave of forced returns has intensified as authorities crack down on undocumented refugees. Similarly, Turkey and Jordan have seen mass repatriations, with border crossings witnessing unprecedented movement.
Fragile Foundations
Despite the enthusiasm surrounding Syria’s new government, the country remains deeply scarred by war. Entire neighborhoods in Aleppo, Damascus, and Homs lie in ruins. Infrastructure is in dire need of repair, with basic services like electricity, clean water, and healthcare still unavailable in many regions. Unemployment remains rampant, and inflation has made basic goods prohibitively expensive for much of the population.
Ibrahim Al-Ibrahim, Deputy Minister of Social Affairs and Labor, spoke with Levant 24 (L24) outlining the government’s priorities: “The criteria [for return] include providing a safe and stable environment, working to remove rubble and mines, ensuring the availability of basic services, and rebuilding destroyed areas.” However, these goals remain aspirational, as the sheer scale of reconstruction needed is staggering.
Sanctions: A Roadblock to Returns
As Syria begins its recovery, sanctions remain a major obstacle to refugee returns and reconstruction. These restrictions, originally aimed at the Assad regime, now hinder the import of construction materials, the restoration of utilities, and the rebuilding of essential infrastructure.
According to OCHA, 16.7 million Syrians need humanitarian aid, yet only 34.2% of the required funding has been met. The UNHCR warns that while 200,000 refugees have returned, sanctions prevent 30% of others from doing so. Calls to ease restrictions grow, but Western nations, especially the US, remain cautious, tying relief to political conditions. For those who have returned, the struggle to rebuild continues.
International Cooperation Key to Success
While the burden of rebuilding Syria falls primarily on its government, international organizations and neighboring countries have a critical role to play in ensuring that returns are sustainable.
Policies that push for mass repatriation without proper infrastructure risk worsening the situation. The UNHCR has emphasized that return programs must be voluntary, dignified, and safe, with long-term plans to support reintegration. Neighboring countries, including Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, must also ensure that refugees are not forced back before Syria is ready.
Additionally, economic incentives could help stabilize returnees. The Syrian government has announced plans to attract expatriate investors and create sustainable job opportunities. “The policies focus on ensuring a safe environment, providing basic services, and working to attract investments,” Al-Ibrahim told L24.
A Cautious Path Forward
Syria’s transition presents both immense opportunities and formidable challenges. The fall of the Assad regime has created a new chapter in the country’s history, but the scars of war remain deeply embedded in its landscape and society. For the millions of Syrians still displaced, the question is not just when to return but whether returning is truly a viable option.
The success of Syria’s refugee repatriation efforts depends on a careful balance: ensuring that those who wish to return can do so safely while protecting the rights of those who are not yet ready. Premature returns could jeopardize the fragile progress made so far, while a well-managed approach could lay the foundation for a stable and prosperous future.
For Muhammad Mustafa and his family, the decision was made out of necessity rather than choice. As they step off the bus and onto Syrian soil, they—like thousands of others—face an uncertain road ahead. The hope is that their journey will not just be a return, but a new beginning.
