The long-anticipated normalization talks between Turkish President Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad are reportedly moving forward, with Russia playing a central role in mediating the discussions. According to sources cited by the Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah, the first face-to-face meeting between Erdogan and Assad is expected to take place in Moscow next month, with Russian President Vladimir Putin acting as the mediator.
The talks, which may also involve Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, signify a major diplomatic effort to address “longstanding issues” between Turkey and Syria. Notably, Iran is expected to be excluded from the meeting, reflecting ongoing tensions and competition between Moscow and Tehran over their influence in Syria’s post-war landscape.
While the initial round of talks is set to focus on economic issues, the contentious topic of Turkish military withdrawal from Syria will be addressed in subsequent discussions. This phased approach aims to build trust and lay the groundwork for more challenging negotiations.
The exclusion of Iran from the meeting is viewed by analysts as a strategic move by Russia. As the Daily Sabah highlighted, the absence of Iran might indicate deeper disputes between Moscow and Tehran, particularly concerning the future role of Iran-backed militias in Syria and competition over economic resources and reconstruction contracts.
The competition between Russia and Iran in Syria has intensified, with Moscow wary of Tehran’s expanding influence and military footprint. Differences over leadership, military operations, and negotiations, including those within the “Astana format,” have further strained relations. By inviting Iraq and excluding Iran, Russia appears to be attempting to bolster its own influence while potentially driving a wedge between Baghdad and Tehran.
In contrast to Moscow’s maneuvers, Turkish officials have been cautiously preparing for the potential summit. Omer Celik, the spokesman for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), noted that while preparations are underway, no specific date or location for the meeting has been confirmed. He emphasized that intelligence and foreign institutions from both sides are working to ensure the meeting takes place at the right time.
Turkey’s initiative to normalize relations with the Assad regime has sparked considerable debate. Over the past few weeks, Turkish officials have reiterated their intention to resolve issues related to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northeastern Syria and facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. The Turkish National Security Council has underscored the importance of “combating terrorism and supporting Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
However, the prospect of normalization with a regime accused of widespread human rights abuses has drawn criticism. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has had to refute claims that a meeting between Erdogan and Assad is imminent, stressing that such reports do not reflect reality.
Despite these denials, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed Russia’s interest in facilitating the normalization process. He stated that Moscow is committed to creating “conditions conducive to dialogue between Turkish and Syrian officials at various levels.”
While the precise details of the meeting remain uncertain, the anticipated talks represent a significant step in Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria. The involvement of Russia as a mediator underscores Moscow’s pivotal role in shaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
