The rapid territorial losses sustained by the Assad regime in Syria have exposed significant vulnerabilities in the military forces of the Damascus regime and the broader fragility of its key ally, Russia. As the Repelling the Aggression campaign continues, Moscow is reassessing its military and political strategies in Syria, confronting both operational setbacks and geopolitical challenges.
Following the revolution’s dramatic capture of Aleppo, General Sergei Kessel, the head of Russian forces in Syria, was dismissed. His removal comes amid criticism of his ineffective command and wider frustrations with Moscow’s diminished influence in the region.
However, Russian military analysts have criticized Kessel’s track record, citing his previous failures in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Military blogs have labeled Syria as “an arena to whitewash the reputations of failed generals,” with calls for reforms in Moscow’s approach to managing its forces in the region. Colonel-General Alexander Chiko is expected to replace Kessel, signaling Moscow’s attempt to restore order in its Syrian operations.
Russia’s involvement in Syria is now constrained by its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine and increasing tensions with Turkey. While Moscow officially supports Assad, its military actions in Syria have been limited to airstrikes, as resources are diverted to Ukraine. Russian political analysts have highlighted the Assad regime’s chronic inefficiencies, including its inability to reform or strengthen its armed forces.
Iran, another critical backer of Assad, has also faced challenges. Its influence in Syria is waning due to pressures from Israeli airstrikes and its own overstretched resources. Tehran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah, have been weakened by commitments in other regional conflicts, leaving Assad without key reinforcements.
Inside Russia, the Assad regime’s losses have sparked rare public criticism. Former military officer Vladislav Shurygin described the situation as a “quagmire syndrome,” likening Russia’s simultaneous commitments in Syria and Ukraine to a losing strategy. Other analysts have pointed out that Assad’s regime is no longer seen as capable of holding its ground without extensive support.
The Kremlin has maintained a public stance of loyalty to Assad, with Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reaffirming “unconditional support for the legitimate Syrian authorities.” However, reports of Assad’s recent unannounced visit to Moscow reflect growing unease over his regime’s fragility.
In a stark acknowledgment of the difficulties, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov engaged in diplomatic outreach with Turkey and Iran to discuss the situation. These moves demonstrate Russia’s desire to maintain its influence in Syria despite a reduced military engagement.
The Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which is one of the primary institutions administering the liberated territories in northern Syria, issued a statement addressing Russia. The SSG called on Moscow to reconsider its support for Assad, emphasizing the regime’s inability to govern and its reliance on oppressive tactics. The SSG also urged Russia to recognize the revolutionary forces as legitimate representatives of the Syrian people and to push for a genuine political solution to the crisis.
The losses in Aleppo and other territories represent a significant blow to the Assad regime and underscore the limits of Russian support. Moscow faces difficult choices: escalate its military involvement in Syria at the expense of its campaign in Ukraine, or recalibrate its strategy to focus on securing key interests such as the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase.
As Russia navigates its diminished role in Syria, the interplay between regional powers, including Turkey and Iran, alongside international stakeholders like the US, will shape the next phase of the conflict. For Assad, the loss of Aleppo has further eroded his legitimacy, while for Moscow, the situation threatens its long-standing narrative of stability and influence in the Middle East.
