As Syria navigates a fragile transition following the fall of the Assad regime, the United States faces critical decisions about its military presence and economic policy in the country. Analysts and policymakers argue that Washington’s next moves will significantly influence Syria’s recovery and regional stability.
A Period of Transitional
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December marked a turning point for Syria, but the nation remains burdened by economic devastation and lingering security concerns. Stephen Simon, a fellow at the Quincy Institute, and Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, wrote in Foreign Affairs that Syria’s new government requires substantial international support to establish control and rebuild.
“The best way to help the new government is to give it a chance to assert its control over the entire country,” the authors noted, emphasizing the need for a stable political and economic foundation.
However, challenges loom large. Syria’s GDP has plummeted from $60 billion in 2011 to $10 billion, with reconstruction costs estimated at $400 billion. Compounding the crisis, 70% of the population lives below the poverty line. The authors stress that easing sanctions, which have long targeted the Assad regime but now impact ordinary Syrians, is a necessary step to attract foreign investment and revive the economy.
Military Presence & Strategic Goals
The United States has long maintained a military presence in Syria, primarily focused on counterterrorism operations against ISIS. Pentagon officials recently disclosed that 2,000 US troops remain in Syria – higher than the previously reported 900 – citing the need to prevent the resurgence of extremist groups.
Deputy National Security Advisor John Finer reaffirmed the mission’s importance: “These troops are there for a very specific and important reason, not as a bargaining chip in some way.”
Yet, Simon and Landis argue that the US has largely achieved its strategic objectives in Syria, including weakening ISIS and countering Iranian influence. They advocate for a conditional withdrawal tied to guarantees from the Syrian Transitional Government (STG) to stabilize the region, protect minorities, and control extremist threats.
The PKK & Regional Dynamics
The future of US involvement is further complicated by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) entanglements with the PKK, the SDF, a critical ally in the coalition fight against ISIS. Despite assurances from the new Syrian administration under Ahmad al-Sharaa, tensions with Turkey, which views the PKK-allied SDF as a terrorist organization, remain a significant obstacle to reconciliation.
“The fate of the Kurds in Syria is a major obstacle in any negotiations over the US withdrawal,” the Foreign Affairs article noted. Resolving this issue will require a delicate balance between Kurdish autonomy and regional stability, particularly given Turkey’s strong opposition to the SDF.
Economic Complications
Handing over control of Syria’s oil fields to the new government could provide a vital economic lifeline, Simon and Landis contend. They argue that US regional allies, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, should play a central role in reconstruction efforts to encourage the return of refugees and bolster Syria’s recovery.
Sanctions relief is another key element. While designed to weaken the Assad regime, these measures have exacerbated Syria’s humanitarian crisis. “Lifting or easing sanctions is essential for the country’s recovery,” the researchers emphasized, urging Washington to consider the broader impact on Syria’s population.
Moving Forward
The US faces a pivotal choice in Syria’s transitional period. Maintaining a military presence risks escalation with the new government, while a carefully negotiated withdrawal could foster stability and strengthen diplomatic ties.
Simon and Landis conclude that creating the conditions for withdrawal “will not be easy, but it will have significant long-term benefits for both the United States and Syria.” Easing sanctions, ensuring minority protections, and supporting reconstruction will be crucial steps in helping Syria rebuild and ensuring a stable and secure region.
