The relationship between Russia and the current government led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa is on new ground since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. As the new administration navigates its position in the international arena, Moscow finds itself reassessing its role in a country where it once held substantial influence as the key ally of Assad’s brutal dictatorship. While historical ties remain, the interests of both sides have shifted, shaping a dynamic where strategic, economic, and security considerations intersect. Yet, the fate of the former dictator in Russian exile contains to cloud diplomacy between the two states.
The Question of Assad: A Lingering Dilemma
The shadow of Bashar al-Assad looms large and remains a contentious issue between Damascus and the Kremlin. The former Syrian dictator, who fled to Moscow via the Hmeimim airbase in December, has been living in seclusion in the Russian capital, largely out of the public eye. According to reports from Israeli and Russian media, Assad has struggled to adapt to his exile, spending his time in luxury apartments rather than engaging in political or social life.
The new Syrian administration has reportedly requested Moscow to hand Assad over for trial, a move that Russia has yet to comment on officially. A Russian intelligence source told the press that Assad’s presence in Russia is increasingly problematic, and his fate remains uncertain. Scenarios range from continued exile to a more drastic resolution similar to those seen with other political figures who have fallen out of favor with the Kremlin. The source noted that “Russia does not want to open old wounds by handing Assad over,” but also does not wish to maintain a long-term liability in Moscow.
Future Relations
While the evolving dynamic between Syria and Russia is marked by pragmatism, the new administration is open to maintaining diplomatic and economic ties, yet it is also keen to diversify its partnerships, particularly with Western nations and regional powers like Turkey. Moscow, on the other hand, is working to protect its remaining interests while acknowledging that its role in Syria has changed. It remains to be seen if the pair can find a balanced relationship as long as Assad remains as a reminder of the crimes and wounds.
