German administrative courts have concluded that current conditions in Syria no longer support claims of systematic persecution based on religious or sectarian affiliation, according to recent rulings and government decision-maker reports. The findings mark a significant shift in asylum assessments following the collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the establishment of a new transitional government.
In a judgment dated Sept. 29, 2025, the Administrative Court in Bremen ruled that there are no sufficient indicators of group persecution of Alawites in Syria under current conditions. The court found that reported attacks against individuals of the sect constitute isolated incidents rather than evidence of an organized or state-directed campaign. The ruling emphasized that the legal threshold of “density of persecution” required for collective refugee protection has not been met, according to the case law.
Role of the Transitional Government
The Bremen court noted that the inclusion of at least one Alawite representative in the transitional government undermines claims of systematic discrimination. It also found no meaningful reports of security forces acting on orders to target Alawites as a group. According to the judgment, the mere fact of Alawite religious affiliation, which accounts for roughly 10% of Syria’s population, does not establish a well-founded fear of persecution without additional, individual risk factors.
Similar conclusions were reached by the Administrative Court in Dusseldorf in a ruling dated Nov. 11, 2025. In that case, the court stated that current sources do not show systematic persecution of Alawites by the new Syrian authorities or by non-state actors acting with state acquiescence. While acknowledging that violent incidents have occurred, the court characterized them as indiscriminate acts that lack sufficient generality to qualify as group persecution.
Changes Affecting Other Asylum Claims
The reassessment of Syria’s security and political landscape has extended beyond sectarian claims. In a decision dated Sept. 3, 2025, the Cologne Administrative Court ruled a complete rejection of an asylum application, combined with a threat of deportation, was lawful for a young, healthy Sunni male applicant. The court held that risks previously associated with the Assad regime, including punishment for draft evasion, no longer apply following the change of power.
According to the German government’s Information Rapid Service report from January 2026, deportation bans relating to Syria are no longer applicable in all cases, particularly for young, able-bodied men without individualized risk profiles. Courts have stressed that asylum and subsidiary protection determinations must now rely on specific personal circumstances rather than “general conditions” that existed under the Assad regime.
Taken together, the rulings reflect a judicial consensus that previous qualifiers for asylum tied to the Assad era no longer automatically apply, given changes implemented by Syria’s current leadership and the absence of verified, systematic persecution.
