Turkey is closely monitoring the rapidly changing dynamics in Syria, where revolutionary forces have made significant advances against the Assad regime as part of the Repelling the Aggression campaign. Turkish officials and analysts have highlighted the operation’s implications for regional stability, Assad’s hold on power, and the influence of foreign actors like Russia and Iran.
During a joint press conference in Ankara with Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic, Turkish President Erdogan emphasized Turkey’s commitment to ending the ongoing instability in Syria. “Our greatest wish is to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria and end the state of instability through an agreement that is in line with the legitimate demands of the Syrian people,” Erdogan said.
He reiterated Turkey’s readiness to act within its capacity to ensure peace in the region. “We are following the field developments in Syria moment by moment within the framework of our country’s national security priorities,” Erdogan added, noting that Turkey would take the necessary measures to prevent any adverse developments.
Writing for the Yetkin Report, Omar Onhon, a former Turkish ambassador to Syria, stated, “The groups participating in the operation are well-organized, possess advanced weaponry, and are now using armed drones.” He stressed that the unfolding events may create opportunities for Turkey to address its strategic goals in Syria, including the potential return of Syrian refugees and the preservation of Syrian territorial integrity.
The former ambassador also analyzed the limited response from Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran. He noted that Russia has been restrained, focusing on maintaining its strategic footholds, such as the Tartus naval base and Hmeimim airbase, while only sporadically providing air support to Assad.
On the other hand, Iran’s influence in Syria appears to be waning, exacerbated by Hezbollah’s reduced capacity to fight on multiple fronts due to heavy Israeli strikes. “The operation could lead to a reduction in Iran’s influence, a development that aligns with the interests of major international and regional players,” Onhon explained.
Revolutionary forces have capitalized on the Assad regime’s weaknesses, making substantial gains across Idlib, Aleppo, and Hama provinces. The Command of Military Operations (CMO) has announced the capture of strategic locations, including Tal Rifaat and sections of the Aleppo-Hama international highway.
Onhon and Turkish officials suggest the recent developments could pave the way for a political resolution to Syria’s crisis. “This process may be an opportunity to start a political solution,” Onhon wrote, aligning with Erdogan’s call for an agreement that respects the aspirations of the Syrian people. As the conflict evolves, Turkey appears poised to leverage its influence to shape the future of Syria while balancing its strategic interests and addressing its national security concerns.
