The recent agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Damascus government marks a significant shift in Syria’s geopolitical landscape. The deal, signed by Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi, aims to integrate the civilian and military institutions of northeastern Syria into the central government. However, implementation challenges have already begun to surface, with Turkey and the US closely monitoring the developments.
SDF’s Crackdown & Public Backlash
In the days following the agreement, the SDF launched a sweeping arrest campaign across Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, and Hasakah. Reports from local sources indicate that numerous individuals were detained under various charges, with accusations of arbitrary arrests and home raids fueling public resentment. Human rights groups estimate that 85% of detainees in SDF custody face the risk of enforced disappearance, further intensifying criticism of the group’s security measures. The Syrian Network for Human Rights has condemned these actions, linking them to broader concerns over freedom of expression in SDF-controlled areas.
The Syrian Government’s Calculations
Damascus, meanwhile, has imposed restrictions on its military personnel, barring them from traveling to SDF-held areas until the agreement is fully implemented. This move reflects concerns over potential clashes or uncoordinated actions as integration efforts unfold.
A major point of contention is the fate of ISIS prisoners and detention camps in northeastern Syria. The SDF has retained control over these facilities, managing security operations in coordination with the US-led coalition. However, Damascus has signaled its willingness to assume responsibility for these sites.
US & Turkish Strategic Interests
The US, which has backed the SDF for years, played a crucial role in brokering discussions leading to the agreement. Washington has sought to encourage cooperation between the SDF and the Syrian government, viewing it as a means to prevent further instability. However, US officials have also raised concerns about potential security gaps, particularly regarding ISIS resurgence.
Turkey, on the other hand, has approached the agreement with cautious optimism. Ankara has long viewed the SDF as an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it considers a terrorist organization. Turkish officials have stressed the need for the SDF to disband and integrate into the Syrian army as individual units rather than a distinct force. Turkish airstrikes on SDF positions in Manbij this week signal that Ankara remains committed to military pressure despite diplomatic developments.
Uncertain Path Forward
With a central committee now formed to oversee the agreement’s implementation, immediate priorities include military restructuring and economic coordination. A potential prisoner exchange between the government and the SDF, expected before the end of the fasting month of Ramadan, could serve as an early test of the deal’s viability. However, whether this agreement leads to long-term stability or further power struggles remains to be seen.
